Cotton prices — take advantage

Cotton prices — take advantage

Feb 5, 2010 8:10 AM, By Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff

An expected rise in cotton acres and production in the United States  and around the world could weigh on cotton prices this year, meaning  producers need to take advantage of pricing opportunities when they  can, say analysts speaking at the Ag Market Network’s January  teleconference.

Texas A&M Extension economist John Robinson says he expects that U.S.cotton growers could plant as much as 10 million acres in 2010, which  would produce a crop of about 15 million bales. “If we export 12  million bales, we wind up with very little change in ending stocks.  That suggests a historical pattern of our normal sideways spring  volatility and perhaps the peak for December 2010 will come during  that period. I would expect to see the December 2010 contract trading  from a high of 80 cents or higher if the funds rev it up.

“Following that first and second quarter spring volatility, I would  expect a gentle trend lower in the second half of the year. That’s the  usual pattern in years in which we have a stable carryover. I can see  it trending down in the third and fourth quarters into the low 70s.“I could paint a worst-case scenario if there is a large increase in  acreage worldwide. If we all enjoy really good weather like we did in  2007 and have a really good supply, and demand remains fuzzy due to a  lingering recession, we might see cotton prices move from the upper  70s into the mid-60s. Neither scenario really seems all that bad  compared to price patterns of the past.”

Texas A&M University professor emeritus Carl Anderson says projected  acreage increases in foreign countries are “worrisome for world  supply. We’re looking at a world supply of cotton that is about  adequate. We have a 45 percent stocks-to-use ratio, a 50-million bale  carryover worldwide.“If we do get U.S. acreage up to 10 million acres, that leaves the  door open for a 14-million to 15-million bale crop. With offtake about  the same as production, our carryover stocks would be very near where  they are now. Should weather enter the picture, we could see some  rallies along the way. The thing to watch is whether the market has  the momentum in February and March to break the 80-cent resistance barrier. If it does, it could really open the door for some pricing  opportunities.”

Mississippi State University economist O.A. Cleveland expects an  increase in Mid-South cotton acreage this spring, due to a corn/cotton  price ratio that is favorable to cotton “and because of the disastrous  soybean situation we had as well. We’ll see a very good increase in  Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi. As we move into the  south Delta, we won’t see as much of an increase there. The corn  tended to be better there. Louisiana won’t see a large change.”Cleveland doesn’t believe Southeast cotton acreage “will be up as much  as the 20 percent some have projected, but I think we’ll see a 10  percent to 15 percent increase. If we get open weather in February, I  would tend to think it will boost our intentions a little more, which  would start to weigh on the market. “My thinking is that we have probably seen the cotton price high for the year. Nonetheless, we could see a bump, depending on the U.S. and  world weather situation.”

Cleveland doesn’t see much happening on the demand side for cotton,  although world economies “are doing much better. But we will see a  spring rally, and we could see something as high as 78 cents or 79  cents. I do not look for that to stay around. I certainly would not wait on that price before I plant cotton.”

Cleveland urged producers to not look at price goals. “We have to  understand our cost of production and what our profit potential is.”Cleveland is optimistic about cotton’s prospects. “We all feel better  about cotton. We all feel that cotton will come back. We won’t be as  strong as we were, but we don’t need to be.”e-mail: erobinson@farmpress.com

Source:

http://deltafarmpress.com/cotton/cotton-prices-0205/

Cotton Falls on Concern Demand May Slow; Orange Juice Falls

Cotton Falls on Concern Demand May Slow; Orange Juice Falls
February 05, 2010, 03:39 PM EST

By Sonja Elmquist Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Cotton futures dropped to the lowest prices  
since November as a rally in the dollar eroded the appeal of  
commodities and slumping equity markets revived concern that the  
economic recovery may stall, slowing demand for clothing.
The dollar jumped to the highest level against major currencies since  
July. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell, after a 3.1 percent drop  
yesterday that was the biggest decline since April, and the Reuters/ 
Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials slipped to the lowest level  
since October. Cotton prices have plunged 13 percent from an 18-month  
high on Jan. 4.
“People are scared from yesterday,” said Mike Stevens, an independent  
analyst and trader in Mandeville, Louisiana. “I have low confidence on  
saying anything fundamental is going to affect this market right now.  
Cotton can’t go anywhere by itself.”
Cotton futures for March delivery fell 2.37 cents, or 3.4 percent, to  
66.62 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, after touching  
66.55 cents, the lowest price since Nov. 6. Futures dropped 3.5  
percent for the week, the fifth straight decline.
Prices jumped 54 percent last year as adverse weather hampered  
harvests and damaged crop quality in the U.S., the world’s biggest  
exporter of the fiber.
The National Cotton Council is scheduled to publish its annual survey  
of U.S. planting intentions today on its Web site.
In another ICE market, orange-juice futures for March delivery fell  
3.3 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $1.3395 a pound, after touching $1.334,  
the lowest price since Jan. 20. The contract slipped 1.6 percent for  
the week, the second straight decline.


--Editors: Steve Stroth, Ted Bunker.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sonja Elmquist in Chicago at  
+1-312-443-5925 or selmquist@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at  
+1-312-443-5931 or sstroth@bloomberg.net.

Source:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-05/cotton-falls-on-concern-demand-may-slow-orange-juice-falls.html

US producers to plant 10.1 mn acres of cotton this spring

US producers to plant 10.1 mn acres of cotton this spring

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 10.1 million acres of cotton  this spring, up more than 10 percent from 2009, according to the  National Cotton Council’s 27th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions  Survey.

Upland cotton intentions are 9.9 million acres, an increase of 10  percent from 2009, while extra long staple (ELS) intentions of 176,000  acres represent a 24 percent rise. The results were announced at the  NCC’s 2010 Annual Meeting, which began at the Peabody Hotel here.

Assuming an average abandonment rate of 11.5 percent, total upland and  ELS harvested area would be about 8.9 million acres. Applying state- level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a  cotton crop of 15.5 million bales, compared to 2009’s total production  of 12.4 million bales. Assuming average seed-to-lint ratios, 2010  cottonseed production is projected at 5.2 million tons, up 1 million  from last year at 4.2 million.

The NCC survey was mailed in mid-December of 2009 to producers across  the 17-state Cotton Belt. Survey responses were collected via return  mail and electronically through mid-January asking for their intended  acreage for 2010 and their plantings of other crops in 2009.

Based on survey results, all four production regions show intended  upland cotton planting increases from last year. The West shows the  largest percentage expansion of 26.6 percent; however, the largest  acreage increase is in the Southwest at 475,000 or up 9.1 percent. The  two other regions, the Southeast and the Mid-South, indicate rises of  12.2 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

NCC Senior Economist Dale Cougot emphasized that, “prevailing market  conditions this year are more favorable for cotton prices than some of  the main competing crops versus the previous couple of years. Part of  this is due to further tightening of world and U.S. cotton supplies,  while other competing crops experience a reduction of pressure on  their supplies from either higher production or lower demand. It is  still early to fully evaluate the impact of weather, ground moisture  and water availability, but most of the Cotton Belt at this point is  better off than in the last several years -- which may alleviate some  of the drag on acres and yields. At this time, planting seeds are  still in the sack and growers will continue to monitor market  conditions comparing relative crop prices and cost in the coming weeks  that could alter their final decision.”

Survey respondents through the Southeast indicated expansion in  acreage, except for Florida, as producers return to peanuts. Alabama  and North Carolina reported the largest percentage swell at 20 percent  for both with shifts coming from reductions in corn and soybeans.  Growers in South Carolina, at 13 percent, and Virginia, at 10 percent,  look to increase acres, mainly at the expense of soybeans, while  Georgia, at 9 percent, is taking acres from corn.

All the Mid-South states intend to expand cotton acres. However, the  magnitude varies from a modest 0.4 percent in Arkansas to 19 percent  n Mississippi, followed closely by Tennessee at 18 percent, Missouri  at 8 percent and Louisiana, which is adding 1 percent. Missouri  growers’ expansion is at the expense of corn, whereas Louisiana and  Mississippi producers noted both corn and soybeans. Tennessee and  Arkansas acres are the results of cotton following acres that were  devoted to wheat and soybeans double cropping in 2009.

Southwest growers expressed intentions of expanding the largest area  by 475,000 acres to 5.7 million acres. A large part of the growth came  from the subsiding drought in Texas (+8.3 percent), while  Kansas’ (+19.0 percent) and Oklahoma’s (+26.3 percent) propose shifts  away from wheat.

“In light of the fact that Texas will account for 54 percent of U.S.  cotton planted area and has a wider variance in abandonment acres and  yields, it could swing the crop estimates either direction by several  million bales this season,” Cougot stated.All of the Western region states showed upland planting increases,  with the region projected to advance by 27 percent. California’s  upland planted area intentions of 37 percent breaks a five-year  

declining trend for that state and -- represents the largest  percentage growth of all Cotton Belt states. This stems from  nervousness in tomato prices and dairy feed production but hinges on  water availability, which could swing acres either way. Survey  responses also revealed enhancements in Arizona (+20 percent) and New  Mexico (+32 percent) upland area.

Increases in the four states producing ELS cotton are coming in  response to better pima prices, which are finding support in strong  export demand and tighter stocks. California leads the way with an  increase of 28 percent. Texas (+7 percent), Arizona (+5 percent) and  New Mexico (+4 percent) report smaller gains.

National Cotton Council Of America

Source:http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=82095

pakistan Aptma rejects plea to cut yarn export ceiling

Aptma rejects plea to cut yarn export ceiling

The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association said that prices of made- ups in the world market had risen by 15pc and that dollar-rupee parity  also changed to almost Rs85 and none of the value added units had  closed down in the last three months.

KARACHI: The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) has  rejected the value-added textile sector’s demand for reducing ceiling  on yarn export by making amendment in the SRO of Jan 14, 2010 issued  by the ministry of commerce.

In a statement issued on Thursday vice-chairman Aptma Yasin Siddik  claimed that ever since the value-added sector raised demand for  restriction on yarn exports, the prices of made-ups in the world  market had risen by 15 per cent and that dollar-rupee parity also  changed from Rs82 in October to almost Rs85 as of today.

Similarly, he said that in the recently held Heimtex fair at Frankfurt  the value-added textile sector received good orders at better prices  and none of the units have closed down in the last three months.

Mr Siddik further said that ceiling on yarn exports had been fixed  after extensive consultations by all the relevant ministries, including the Senate standing committee on Textiles. The 50,000 tons  figure was arrived at after looking at the average exports of last three years.

Therefore, he said the demand of the value-added sector to deduct  export of yarn from remaining six months (Jan to June) of current  fiscal is illogical as it was not possible for them to consume more  than the existing quantity available for domestic market.

He alleged that all these tactics by the value-added sector is to  pressurise the spinners to sell yarn at cheaper rates and on easy  payment terms and conditions to cover up their inefficiency.

The Aptma vice-chairman demanded that banks be directed to give export  refinance only against the pledge of raw material and finished goods  in order to ensure that cheaper funds are utilised only for genuine  purposes.

Source : 

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/13+aptma-rejects-plea-to-cut-yarn-export-ceiling-520-za-09

pakistan Cotton-yarn shortage: Disaster for downstream textile sector

Cotton-yarn shortage: Disaster for downstream textile sector 

February 05, 2010 (Pakistan)

Non-availability of cotton yarn in the country is causing difficulties  for the value added textile exporters to fulfill international demands  and exporters may face a number of cancellations of valuable orders  and lose foreign markets resulting in the closures of many textile  units and mass unemployment.

The exporters urged the government to take remedial steps immediately  to make amendments in Ministry of Commerce S.R.O. 26(I)/2010 dated  14th January, 2010, which is complete eyewash and not beneficial for  the value-added textile sector, said Mr. Javed Bilwani, at a press  conference.

Mr. Bilwani, who is a spokesman of the Value Added Textile Associations (VATA) and Chief Coordinator, Pakistan Hosiery  Manufacturers & Exporters Association added that the sector is  struggling to obtain cotton yarn as it is the key input of value-added  textile sector, which is being exported blatantly.

It is very awful that the cotton yarn, which is manufactured in  Pakistan, is not available to country’s own value added textile export  sector but to its competitor countries, making them more competitive  in the global market, he lamented.

Though a number of meetings have been held between stakeholders and  the government; and facts and figures, showing rampant exports of yarn  that are taking toll on value-added textile export sector, have been  presented by the sector entrepreneurs, despite which, the government  made manipulations in connivance with vested interests and issued an  unrealistic S.R.O. that aims to swell cotton yarn export much more  than estimated, regretted Mr. Bilwani.

Exports of cotton yarn should be curbed as well as the capping of  exports should have been done on basis of quantity of exports of last  year. In spite of the formation of much-hyped Textile Policy, last  year, the country could not achieve export target of $25 billion,  added Mr. Bilwani.

Fibre2fashion News Desk - India

Source:

http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/apparel-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=82065

pakistan Import of 2.5mn bales likely to meet shortfall

Govt of Pakistan had set a target of 13.3mn bales for the 2009-10  crops, but attacks by pests and cotton leaf curl virus have taken a  toll and the output is projected at 12.7mn bales.

KARACHI: Pakistan will need to import about 2.5 million bales in the  last quarter of the financial year to June 2010 to mop up demand,  traders said on Thursday, with most of the supplies expected to come from neighbouring india.

World cotton output is forecast to rise 10 per cent to 24.2 million  tons in 2010-11, led by larger production from China, an international  farm group said last month.

Pakistan’s output from the 2009-10 crop year that runs from April to  March is projected at 12.70 million bales, compared with 11.8 million  the previous year. Domestic consumption fluctuates between 14 million  and 16 million bales a year.

Ginners have stocks of 800,000 bales as of Jan 31, compared with 1.5  million bales at the same time last year, with another 200,000 bales  expected from the remaining 2009-10 crop, traders said, meaning  supplies will dry up by the end of March.

“There is no stock after that and we will have to import about 2.5  million bales to meet demand for the April-June quarter,” Sohail  Naseem, chairman of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), told Reuters.

“Most of the supplies are expected from India as it costs less in  transportation and takes fewer days for delivery as compared to other  sources.”

Another prominent trader, Naseem Usman, estimated total imports for  the April-June quarter at between 1.5 million and 2 million bales, as  roughly 600,000 bales had already been imported and some more were in  the pipeline.

While some supplies will be coming from other sources such as Brazil,  Pakistan would mostly be relying on India for cotton, said Usman, who  heads the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum.

KCA chairman Naseem said that while Indian cotton production had  surged significantly in the last decade, Pakistan’s cotton output had  become stagnant at about 12 million bales over the past few years.

The government had set a target of 13.36 million bales for the 2009-10  crop after the area under cultivation increased to 3.2 million  hectares (7.9 million acres) from 2.8 million hectares last year, but  attacks by pests and cotton leaf curl virus have taken a toll. —Reuters

Source:http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/13+import-of-2.5m-bales-likely-to-meet-shortfall-520-za-11

FICCI suggests 5-year policy to revitalize Indian textile industry

FICCI suggests 5-year policy to revitalize Indian textile industry

By Our Special Correspondent

MUMBAI, FEB. 05—

Recognising the need to turnaround the Indian Textiles and Clothing  Industry, FICCI today suggested a five year policy to revitalise and restructure Indian  textiles industry.

The Policy “Indian Textiles & Clothing Industry : 2015” aims to  neutralize the impact of economic crisis on Indian textiles industry;  diversify our export and domestic market; encourage consolidation of  SME enterprises; encourage maximum value addition in the country;  deepening fibre consumption of India; building of 20 global brands of  India; promote manufacturing of hightech fibres and technical  textiles; encouraging energy efficient and emission reduction  technologies; increased indigenisation of textile equipments and  increased technological support, FICCI said.

The need for such a new policy arises in the wake of changing global  economic scenario in which a number of countries like Vietnam,  Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey etc are givingfierce competition to Indian textiles and also to provide inherent  strength to the industry, FICCI pointed-out. Also, some of these  countries have introduced ambitious textiles policies last year only.  FICCI said that there is a need to infuse confidence, through policy, 

in the industry which has suffered the most because of economic crisis  and rupee appreciation in the past.

The policy, FICCI said, targets steady growth of 15% per annum of  domestic textile industry and 20% per annum growth in our exports for the next five years in  order to enable us to double our share in world textiles and clothing  exports (Hence the name ‘20-15’ for the policy).FICCI noted that if we are able to achieve 20% growth in our textiles  exports per annum and 15% growth per annum in domestic production then  our domestic textile market size would be $ 106 billion by 2015 and  exports would be around $ 66 billion.

Given the long term growth of 7% in world trade in textiles, India’s  share would be around 6.6% in 2015 at a growth of 20% per annum, which would be almost  double of India’s currentshare of 3.4%. FICCI said that the Indian textiles sector’s growth has  been lagging behind the growth of the manufacturing sector as a whole.  In the last six years the average growth of the manufacturing sector  was 8.3% whereas that of textiles sector was only 5.3%. During April- November 2009, while the manufacturing sector registered a growth of  7.7%, the textiles sector grew by only 5.8%

Elaborating the main components of “20-15 Policy”, FICCI said that the  growth of garmentsector, which has maximum scope for value addition, is today hampered  because of number of constraints. FICCI noted that despite the fact 

that in India the total production cost of ring-spinning and knitting  and weaving of ring yarn fabrics are the lowest in the world, India  does not have a significant share in value added garments in global  trade (only 3%).

The suggested policy, according to FICCI, should focus on making India  a manufacturing hub of value added garments and ensure that country is able to cultivate  20 internationally famous brands.The aim of the policy would be to achieve 15 to 20% share of these  branded items in our exports in next five years, FICCI said. On fibre  consumption, FICCI said that there is need to deepen our fibre  consumption which remains very low.

Today, the average world per capita fibre consumption is around 10.8  kg and that of India is around 5 to 6 kg only. Whereas, FICCI noted that per capita fibre consumption in China is 14.6 kg, in North America it is 38 kg and in  Thailand it is 19.8 kg. Within this, our per capita consumption of man-made fibre remains very low at around 2 kg compared to 12 kg in China  and 11 kg in EU, FICCI observed.

The policy should try to achieve higher fibre consumption by  increasing domestic textile demand, expanding reach in rural areas and  exploring new products, FICCI pointed-out. The target should be to at  least double FICCI for increasing textile demand in rural areas the  fibre consumption in next five years. Another main task of this policy  would be to align the fibreconsumption ratio (ratio of manmade fibre to natural fibre in  consumption) of India, which is currently around 40:60, to the world  norms (60:40), FICCI stated.

Emphasising the need for this, FICCI said that globally market share  of cotton decreased from 62.4% in 1960s to 39.5% in 2008. Most of the decline in 

consumption of cotton occurred in developing countries where the  market share of cotton fell from 60% in early 1980s to 35% in 2008.  However, in India the market share of cotton has come down from 69% in  1996 to 62% in 2008.

FICCI said that in India this ratio is almost the reverse of the world  ratio. Long term projections indicate that consumption of other fibres  is projected to grow faster than cotton consumption and market share  of cotton is expected to decline to 30.5% in 2020, FICCI observed.

In this context, FICCI said that it is important to adjust our  policies so as to increase the consumption of man-made fibres in the country.

Also, the policy should try to achieve maximum consolidation of small  and medium enterprises in the textiles and garment sector so that  country can reap the benefits of economies of scale in the global  supply chain, FICCI emphasised.

Currently, the domestic industry is dominated by small and medium  enterprises and a number of them in the unorganised sector.  Consolidation will help the industry in realising its true potential,  FICCI said.

Another important aspect of the policy would be to achieve greater  energy efficiency and emission reduction in textile industry.

For this, industry would require greater technological support to  achieve lower emission and higher energy efficiency targets and to eliminate out dated  technologies. Further, FICCI said that the policy should also aim at  indigenisation of high technology textile equipments.

Currently, in- dustry is dependent largely on imports of machinery and  equipments. Government needs to provide technological support and  enhance innovation efforts to encourage domestic production of equipments and machinery.

In order to neutralise the impact of economic crisis on textile  sector, the policy should continue some of the policy measures provided so as to maintain steady  growth of textiles sector in the long run, added FICCI.

Come to India': minister tells European textile firms

Come to India': minister tells European textile firms(AFP) – 1 day ago

PARIS — Indian Textiles Minister Dayanidhi Maran on Tuesday urged  European companies to invest more in his country as he insisted in  Paris that India was a more lucrative destination than China."Come, come, come and make money," Maran told textile industry  executives, adding: "Come to India, produce in India, sell in India,  make money in India." Maran, who visited Switzerland, Italy and Turkey before arriving in France, said India was a safer bet for investors than China."We want to ensure thatIndia has good quality products, that copyright is protected, so that investors prefer India to China or other countries," he told AFP.

"We want to ensure that more investment comes to India, not to take  your business,"he said.India's textile industry made an estimated 62 billion dollars (45 billion 

euros) in sales in 2008-2009, with 35 percent of them in  exports.More than 

30 percent of exports go to European Union countries and  another 20 percent to the United States.The Indian textiles minister forecast a fourfold increase inexports  in the next 25 years, from 22 billion dollars to 90 billion dollars.

Maran's delegation will visit Germany, the last stop of its tour,  
after its trip in France.

Source: 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hc1mrPHnjeJFRaqanNaRm05RV-Yw

Unavailability of cotton yarn cripples downstream textile sector Staff Report

Unavailability of cotton yarn cripples downstream textile sector Staff Report

Karachi: The value added textile exporters are finding it difficult to  meet theircommitments with their foreign buyers owing to non- availability of cotton yarn and feared there will be a spate of  cancellation of valuable orders, losing of our foreign markets leading  to large number of closures of the units resulting in 

mass unemployment, chaos and disaster.

It urged the government to wake up to the alarming fact and take immediate remedial actions to immediately amend Ministry of Commerce S.R.O. 26(I)/2010 dated 14th January, 2010 which is absolutely an eyewash with no benefit at all to the Value Added Textile Sector.

At a press conference on Wednesday Javed Bilwani, spokesman for the Value Added Textile Associations (VATA) and Chief Coordinator,Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers & Exporters Association said that sector is starving for cotton yarn because the major input of this sector is blatantly being exported.

He said it is unfortunate that Pakistan’s own raw material cotton yarn is not available to its own value added textile export sector and instead it is exported to our competing countries strengthening our competitors in the global market?

Despite several marathon meetings of stakeholders with the government and facts and figures produced by the Value Added Textile Sector from which it is evident thatunbridled exports of yarn is greatly damaging the Value Added Textile Export Sector,he regretted that government does not seem to understand and grasp plain mathematics and instead manipulation is done in connivance with vested interests and an

S.R.O.  is issued which is not at all realistic but aims to increase export of  
Cotton Yarn much more than envisaged.

Bilwani noted that restrictions should have been made on all exports  of cotton yarn and capping of exports should have been done on quantity of exports of previousyear, which too is higher but  unfortunately with the ceiling on exports as per the Ministry of  Commerce S.R.O. 26(I)/2010 dated 14th January, 2010 the exports of  
Cotton Yarn would be 40% more than previous year, when actually as globally production of Cotton has decreased and accordingly we should  have reduced our export ofCotton Yarn but this is not done?

He said that despite the much-hyped Textile Policy announced in 2009, objectives and goals of an export target $25 billions miserably could not be achieved.

Source:

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C02%5C04%5Cstory_4-2-2010p_g5_4

China Cotton Market Daily(4 Feb 2010)

China Cotton Market Daily(4 Feb 2010)
Published: 04 Feb 2010 01:36:21 PST

CCF priceprefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"
·2/4 CCF RMB price for type 329: 15070 yuan/mt, -5.00yuan/mt
·2/4 CCF USD price for type 329:100.15cent/lb
·2/3 Cotlook A: 76.05cent/lb, +0.90cent/lb


China cotton
Sales of domestic cotton were slack today. Most cotton enterprises  
stopped selling, waiting for cotton market situation after spring  
festival. Cotton price generally kept stable and value for type 328  
stabilized at 15100-15200yuan/mt (net weight, ex-warehouse).

A few small-scale cotton enterprises still traded at a low price for  
sales promotion. In Jiangsu, type 328 was traded at 14800yuan/mt, down  
by 100yuan/mt.

Import cotton
CIF offer for foreign cotton continued to hike today. Offer for U.S.  
cotton, Australian cotton and Mexico cotton climbed up by 0.50cent/lb  
while offer for African cotton, Indian cotton and Central Asian cotton  
went up by 0.25cent/lb. Offer for long-staple cotton kept stable.

Offer for foreign cotton have been up for two days. One the whole,  
offer for Indian cotton gained greatly, which hiked from 75cent/lb  
early this week to 76.5-77.0cent/lb for S-6 1-1/8.

As spring festival is coming, sales of warehouse foreign cotton were  
slack. Offer for SM 1-1/8 Uzbekistan cotton was 79.5cent/lb (net  
weight, ex-warehouse). Mills weren't active to purchase as sliding  
scale duty quotas haven’t been allocated so far.

Source: 

http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/textiles/100244669-1-china-cotton-market-daily%25284-feb.html

India Oct-Jan cotton exports surge to 2.8 mln bales

India Oct-Jan cotton exports surge to 2.8 mln bales
Thu Feb 4, 2010 12:06pm IST

MUMBAI, Feb 4 (Reuters) - India's cotton export in the first four months of 2009/10 jumped by 245 percent to 2.79 million bales, data on  textile ministry's website showed. In Oct-Jan the country shipped 2.79 million bales, compared to 809,969  bales  year ago, data showed.

India's cotton exports are expected to jump by 57 percent to 5.5 million bales in 2009/10, A.B. Joshi, textile commissioner and  chairman of Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), said in November.(1 bale=170 kg)

(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Sunil Nair)

Source:http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBMB00979320100204

Pak export to China increased by 25 per cent in 2009: Ambassador Khan

BEIJING, Feb 4 (APP): Pakistan export to China increased by 25 per  
cent last year, but bilateral trade data for 2009 has both good and  
bad news.“Good news is that Pakistani exports increased by 25% to US $  
1.2 billion. The not-so-good news is that overall volume decreased (by  
- 4 % ) to US $ 6.7 billion”, said Ambassador of Pakistan to China  
Masood Khan here Thursday. Addressing the Pakistan-China Trade  
Promotion Seminar at Pakistan Embassy ambassador Khan further said  
that the balance of trade improved because of decline in Chinese  
exports by 8.9 %. This was of course because of the international  
financial crisis, but our overall bilateral trade according to the  
latest figures is picking momentum.

The seminar was largely attended among others by Director Development  
Research Center of the State Council Ms. Zhang Qi, Mr. Ouyang Cheng of  
Department of International Trade and Economic Affairs of Ministry of  
Commerce (MOFCOM), Mr. Zhao Jianying of China Council for Promotion of  
International Trade (CCPI) and Mr. Jamshed Iftikhar, Director General  
(East Asia Pacific), Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“Your presence and interaction today, I am sure, will open new avenues  
for trade between our two countries”, Khan observed.
He said that Pakistan has one of the most liberal trade and investment  
regimes in Asia. Ease of doing businesses is improving. All doors are  
open for our friends from China.

In 2009, our macroeconomic environment continued to improve and move  
towards stability, he said adding that in 2008-2009, we were hit hard  
by three crises: (a) high oil prices, (b) food shortages, and ©  
international financial crisis.

He however maintained that “Pakistan has done well in the past year.
We have averted an economic crisis. Despite huge expenditures on  
security, relief to the internally displaced persons from Swat,  
Malakand and South Waziristan, and reconstruction of the areas  
affected by the war on terrorism, our growth climbed back. It is  
expected to be 3% in 2010 and around 4 to 5 % in 2011”.

The agriculture sector has performed particularly well (4.7%) on  
account of good crops. The large manufacturing sector contracted but  
small and medium sized enterprises grew by 7.5%. Foreign remittances  
doubled to more than US $ 7 billion.

Ambassador Khan expressed the confidence that “By 2012 our economy is  
expected to fully regain its traction”.
This year is also a special year for Pak-China trade. Shanghai Expo  
2010 will provide a fresh stimulus for promotion of our trade.   
Pakistan Pavilion is located next to China’s Pavilion. At our  
Pavilion, we will capture not only the diversity of our national life  
under the sub-theme “Harmony in Diversity” but demonstrate our deep  
friendship with the government and people of China.

Shedding lights on bilateral relations, Khan pointed out that in the  
past one and half years, President Asif Ali Zardari visited China four  
times and Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani three times. He said  
that we are expecting high level visits from China this year.
This depth and intensity of our relationship creates an ideal platform  
for our trade relations. If we compare the current trade figure of US  
$ 6.9 billion to the figure of US $ 1.8 billion in 2002, we have  
certainly done well. However, our target is to reach the figure of US  
$ 15 billion in the next 3 to 4 years.

This is possible because of a number of steps that the two governments  
have taken in the recent past.

First, the Chinese investment has increased manifold in Pakistan in  
key sectors including port development, roads, railway, mobile  
telephony, communication technology, hydro and thermal power, mining,  
electronics, and nuclear energy. This kind of investment generates  
investment related trade on both sides.

Second, Pakistan and China have signed free trade agreements covering  
goods, investment and services. These three agreements are  
facilitating integration of the economies of Pakistan and China for  
mutual benefit. These instruments will not only stimulate growth of  
trade but will promote joint ventures, create jobs and transfer  
technology.

“Under the FTA on Trade in Services which became operational on 10  
October 2009, Pakistan is opening 102 sub-sectors of 11 major sectors  
and China is further opening its 28 sub-sectors of 6 major sectors”  
Khan told the participants.

Pakistan is relaxing its share-holding restrictions on Chinese  
investments in the sectors of construction, telecom, finance, health  
care, environmental protection, tourism, transportation, research and  
development, and IT education. Fifty six (56) sectors, including fives  
major sectors of distribution, education, environment, transportation,  
entertainment, and sports are being opened to the Chinese providers  
for the first time.

China is opening sectors including mining, environmental protection,  
health care, real estate, sports, computers, and marketing  
consultancy, among others.Third, Pakistan-China Free Trade Commission met on September 10 last  year and decided to focus on:

(a)  Visa facilitation for business to business contacts and  exchanges. It was mentioned that the issues regarding the visas for  Pakistani businessmen would be addressed.
(b)  Dissemination of information for stakeholders in Pakistan and  China through the print and electronic media as well through dedicated  trade portals.
(c)  Establishment of a sub-committee on Trade in Goods and a  committee on Trade in Services (under articles 11 and 20 of the  respective FTAs.)
(d)  Further investment in the manufacturing sectors in Pakistan with  
buy-back arrangements.
(e)  Further discussion on bilateral Transit Trade Agreement.
Pakistan will present a proposal in this regard.

Last year, our Commerce Minister, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, unveiled three  
year strategic trade policy framework, Ambassador Khan said adding  
“Under this framework, we are enhancing competitiveness of our  
products, particularly textiles and clothing, diversifying export  
markets and promoting trade in services”.

“We are specifically targeting the sectors of chemical products,  
pharmaceuticals, meat and meat products, mining, agro-based industry,  
light engineering, gems and jewelry, and export promotion services”  
Ambassador Khan noted.

In the Embassy, Khan said that we give special care to Chinese  
traders, businessmen and tourists who want to go to Pakistan for work  
and leisure. We ensure the fastest, the least expensive, and most  
hassle free visa issuance and delivery services.

Finally, referring to the security situation Ambassador Khan informed  
that security of Chinese enterprises and personnel is given top  
priority in Pakistan. To start with, the whole of Pakistan is  
hospitable to Chinese visitors. But to protect them from the evil  
designs of dark forces, we have made special arrangements for the  
security of our Chinese professionals.

“So please go to Pakistan with full confidence (and sense of  
security)” Ambassador Khan said.

Source:

http://ftp.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=95705&Itemid=2

Pakistan sees 2.5m cotton bales imported in Apr-Jun

Pakistan sees 2.5m cotton bales imported in Apr-Jun
Thu Feb 4, 2010 3:13pm IST

* Imports of about 2.5 mln bales on cards
* Imports to fill demand from hungry textile sector
* Supplies from neighbour and rival cheaper, quicker

By Augustine Anthony
KARACHI, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Pakistan will need to import about 2.5  
million bales in the last quarter of the financial year to June 2010  
to mop up demand, traders said on Thursday, with most of the supplies  
expected to come from neighbouring India.

Pakistan is the world's fourth biggest cotton producer but often has  
to turn to imports to meet the demand of its textile sector, which  
accounts for about 60 percent of exports.

World cotton output is forecast to rise 10 percent to 24.2 million  
tonnes in 2010/11, led by larger production from China, an  
international farm group said last month. [ID:nN04249247].
Pakistan's output from the 2009/10 crop year that runs from April to  
March is projected at 12.70 million bales, compared with 11.8 million  
the previous year. Domestic consumption fluctuates between 14 million  
and 16 million bales a year.

Ginners have stocks of 800,000 bales as of Jan. 31, compared with 1.5  
million bales at the same time last year, with another 200,000 bales  
expected from the remaining 2009/10 crop, traders said, meaning  
supplies will dry up by the end of March.

"There is no stock after that and we will have to import about 2.5  
million bales to meet demand for the April-June quarter," Sohail  
Naseem, chairman of the private Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), told  
Reuters."Most of the supplies are expected from India as it costs less in  

transportation and takes fewer days for delivery as compared to other  
sources."

Another prominent trader, Naseem Usman, estimated total imports for  
the April-June quarter at between 1.5 million and 2.0 million bales,  
as roughly 600,000 bales had already been imported and some more were  
in the pipeline.

"INDIAN COTTON"
While some supplies will be coming from other sources such as Brazil,  
Pakistan would mostly be relying on India for cotton, said Usman, who  
heads the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum.

India is likely to harvest 29.5 million bales of cotton in 2009/10,  
and A.B. Joshi, India's textile commissioner and chairman of its  
Cotton Advisory Board, said in November Indian cotton exports were  
expected to jump 57 percent to 5.5 million bales in 2009/10.  
[ID:nBOM523445]

For years, trade has been limited between the nuclear-armed rivals,  
which have fought three wars since their independence in 1947 and  
nearly went to war a fourth time in 2002.

Relations touched new lows after India suspended a peace process with  
Pakistan started in 2004, following an assault on the Indian financial  
capital of Mumbai by Pakistan-based militants in November 2008.

KCA chairman Naseem said that while Indian cotton production had  
surged significantly in the last decade, Pakistan's cotton output had  
become stagnant at about 12 million bales over the past few years.
Pakistan's cotton output in 2008/09 fell to 11.8 million bales against  
a target of 14.1 million, mainly because of a water shortage and pest  
attacks, and a 7.7 percent cut in the area under cotton cultivation  
from the year before.

The government had set a target of 13.36 million bales for the 2009/10  
crop after the area under cultivation increased to 3.2 million  
hectares (7.9 million acres) from 2.8 million hectares last year, but  
attacks by pests and cotton leaf curl virus have taken a toll. (1  
bale=170 kg) (Editing by Robert Birsel, Clarence Fernandez)

Clampdown fears belie China's loose lending

Clampdown fears belie China's loose lending - Mon Feb 1, 2010 3:00pm IST

By Simon Rabinovitch and Aileen Wang BEIJING (Reuters) - For all the panic about China's lending clampdown, the market has lost sight of the fact that the risks of excessive loan growth and hence economic overheating and inflation are still skewed  to the upside.

Global markets tumbled on the clampdown, fearing tighter monetary policy would crimp demand from a country providing a crutch for an otherwise limping global economy.But those fears have arisen in part from a basic mistake. Investors have confused the government's hard line on the pace of lending for its much more generous stance on lending volume.

Beijing entered 2010 with a hefty target of 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in new credit, or an 18 percent increase in the stock of  loans, and a demand that banks spread out their loans over the course of the year.A loans surge at the start of January made a mockery of the latter.

Banks lent 1.1 trillion yuan, or 15 percent of the full-year target,  in the first two weeks of the year, rushing to expand their balance  sheets before policy tightening shuts the door on them.The subsequent clampdown -- ordering banks to slow and, in some cases, even halt loan approval -- was a crack of the whip to get the unruly lenders to fall into line with the goal of a more balanced pace of lending.

The central bank also instigated a rise in bank reserve requirements across the board, restricting cash that otherwise could be used for lending. The worst offenders were singled out for even steeper increases.

Had banks continued to dish out loans unabated, the situation would  have been more dire, fanning price rises and asset bubbles."It would be out of control. The real demand for loans -- for  
investment, consumption, for all this business -- is not that great,"  said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong  Kong. But there is little doubt so far about the government's commitment to  relatively loose credit conditions over the course of the year."This year's new loan target is definitely smaller than last year's  level (of 9.6 trillion yuan) but it still represents massive growth  compared with other years," said a banking official, speaking on the  condition of anonymity."It means that lending will not shrink abruptly, because the economic  
recovery still needs capital support."

Moreover, analysts estimate that a good chunk of last year's loans --  as much as 1.5 trillion yuan or 16 percent -- is still sitting unused  in corporate bank accounts.

SURGE REDUX?
China's annual loan growth had been below nominal GDP growth for a few  years until last year's blow-out, when credit rose by 33 percent, more  than 20 percentage points faster than the overall economy's expansion.This was a key part of the country's stimulus programme, fuelling the  
economy with loose money to power past the global financial crisis.With global demand weak, the private sector flat and manufacturers  suffering from over-capacity, the government judged -- and many  analysts agreed -- that it could contain inflationary pressures caused  by the lending surge, so long as it was confined to one year.It was, in other words, meant to be an exceptional policy in  exceptional circumstances.But the gusher of loans at the start of this year was a warning that  Beijing would have a battle on its hands to avoid a repeat of last  year's surge.

A slowdown at the end of January may have capped monthly new loans at  1.6 trillion yuan, according to official media reports, but this is  broadly the same amount as January 2009 when the economy was in the  doldrums and not growing at an annualised rate of 11.3 percent."If this pace were allowed to continue, total lending would far exceed  the 18 percent growth that had been deemed 'appropriately  accommodative'," Tao Wang, an economist with UBS in Beijing, wrote in  
a note.

TUG OF WAR
If the government fails to control lending -- for example, if new  lending tops 4 trillion yuan in the first quarter, as it did last year  -- Beijing may have to wade in more heavily to keep a lid on inflation  and prevent over-investment.

Strict bank lending quotas, aggressive reserve requirement increases,  slower investment project approvals and eventually higher policy rates  could be on the cards. For possible scenarios
Beijing was always going to have a tall order in getting banks to go  easy on loans at the start of the year. In the country's typical  lending pattern, banks issue about 40 percent of full-year loans in  the first quarter.
If the government had any illusions about banks' incentive to front- load lending even more heavily when tightening is expected, those have  been dispelled by January's lending surge.The way that banks rushed to push out loans to gain market share  before worried regulators pushed back could become something of a  pattern, as it was in 2007/2008.
"We are likely to see the tug-of-war repeated each month and each  quarter for the rest of the year. The end result may be net new  lending of at least 7.5 trillion, but the process should be stop and  go, causing a lot of uncertainty," Tao said.

(For more news on Reuters Money visit www.reutersmoney.in)


http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-45816620100201?sp=true

India’s raw cotton exports rise to 2.8M bales in Oct-Jan

India’s raw cotton exports rise to 2.8M bales in Oct-Jan Published on February 04, 2010 at 18:00

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): Raw cotton exports from India since the beginning of marketing year in October to January were registered a total of 2.8 million bales of 170 kilograms each, said data from the Office of the Textile Commissioner.


The country’s raw cotton exports stood at 809,970 bales during the same period a year earlier, said the data. Exporters registered contracts for shipments of 5.1 million bales of raw cotton during the period compared with 896,865 bales a year earlier, the data added.


India will likely export 5.5 million bales of cotton in the marketing year that began Oct. 1, helped by a recovery in global demand, up from 3.5 million bales a year earlier, according to the government-run Cotton Advisory Board.

Source : http://www.commodityonline.com/news/India’s-raw-cotton-exports-rise- to-28M-bales-in-Oct-Jan-25414-3-1.html