US producers to plant 10.1 mn acres of cotton this spring

US producers to plant 10.1 mn acres of cotton this spring

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 10.1 million acres of cotton  this spring, up more than 10 percent from 2009, according to the  National Cotton Council’s 27th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions  Survey.

Upland cotton intentions are 9.9 million acres, an increase of 10  percent from 2009, while extra long staple (ELS) intentions of 176,000  acres represent a 24 percent rise. The results were announced at the  NCC’s 2010 Annual Meeting, which began at the Peabody Hotel here.

Assuming an average abandonment rate of 11.5 percent, total upland and  ELS harvested area would be about 8.9 million acres. Applying state- level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a  cotton crop of 15.5 million bales, compared to 2009’s total production  of 12.4 million bales. Assuming average seed-to-lint ratios, 2010  cottonseed production is projected at 5.2 million tons, up 1 million  from last year at 4.2 million.

The NCC survey was mailed in mid-December of 2009 to producers across  the 17-state Cotton Belt. Survey responses were collected via return  mail and electronically through mid-January asking for their intended  acreage for 2010 and their plantings of other crops in 2009.

Based on survey results, all four production regions show intended  upland cotton planting increases from last year. The West shows the  largest percentage expansion of 26.6 percent; however, the largest  acreage increase is in the Southwest at 475,000 or up 9.1 percent. The  two other regions, the Southeast and the Mid-South, indicate rises of  12.2 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

NCC Senior Economist Dale Cougot emphasized that, “prevailing market  conditions this year are more favorable for cotton prices than some of  the main competing crops versus the previous couple of years. Part of  this is due to further tightening of world and U.S. cotton supplies,  while other competing crops experience a reduction of pressure on  their supplies from either higher production or lower demand. It is  still early to fully evaluate the impact of weather, ground moisture  and water availability, but most of the Cotton Belt at this point is  better off than in the last several years -- which may alleviate some  of the drag on acres and yields. At this time, planting seeds are  still in the sack and growers will continue to monitor market  conditions comparing relative crop prices and cost in the coming weeks  that could alter their final decision.”

Survey respondents through the Southeast indicated expansion in  acreage, except for Florida, as producers return to peanuts. Alabama  and North Carolina reported the largest percentage swell at 20 percent  for both with shifts coming from reductions in corn and soybeans.  Growers in South Carolina, at 13 percent, and Virginia, at 10 percent,  look to increase acres, mainly at the expense of soybeans, while  Georgia, at 9 percent, is taking acres from corn.

All the Mid-South states intend to expand cotton acres. However, the  magnitude varies from a modest 0.4 percent in Arkansas to 19 percent  n Mississippi, followed closely by Tennessee at 18 percent, Missouri  at 8 percent and Louisiana, which is adding 1 percent. Missouri  growers’ expansion is at the expense of corn, whereas Louisiana and  Mississippi producers noted both corn and soybeans. Tennessee and  Arkansas acres are the results of cotton following acres that were  devoted to wheat and soybeans double cropping in 2009.

Southwest growers expressed intentions of expanding the largest area  by 475,000 acres to 5.7 million acres. A large part of the growth came  from the subsiding drought in Texas (+8.3 percent), while  Kansas’ (+19.0 percent) and Oklahoma’s (+26.3 percent) propose shifts  away from wheat.

“In light of the fact that Texas will account for 54 percent of U.S.  cotton planted area and has a wider variance in abandonment acres and  yields, it could swing the crop estimates either direction by several  million bales this season,” Cougot stated.All of the Western region states showed upland planting increases,  with the region projected to advance by 27 percent. California’s  upland planted area intentions of 37 percent breaks a five-year  

declining trend for that state and -- represents the largest  percentage growth of all Cotton Belt states. This stems from  nervousness in tomato prices and dairy feed production but hinges on  water availability, which could swing acres either way. Survey  responses also revealed enhancements in Arizona (+20 percent) and New  Mexico (+32 percent) upland area.

Increases in the four states producing ELS cotton are coming in  response to better pima prices, which are finding support in strong  export demand and tighter stocks. California leads the way with an  increase of 28 percent. Texas (+7 percent), Arizona (+5 percent) and  New Mexico (+4 percent) report smaller gains.

National Cotton Council Of America

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