According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), global cotton stocks are expected to increase 4% by the end of the 2010/2011 season to 9.3m tonnes. This is equivalent to 42m bales.
During the 2009-2010 season stocks fell by 25% to 8.9m tonnes, the smallest amount for seven seasons. By the 2011-2012 season, the ICAC is forecasts stocks will increase further to 11.2m tonnes, or 52m bales.
The global stocks-to-use ratio is also predicted to increase from 36% in 2009-10 to 38% in 2010-11, said the ICAC. This is however well below the ten year average of 48%. Whereas a bumper crop is expected in the Southern Hemisphere, stocks are expected to decline in most Northern Hemisphere countries.
Despite this forecast, cotton mill consumption is expected to remain stable at 24.6m tonnes 2010-11, due to limited available supplies and high prices. This is equivalent to 113m bales.
According to the Cotlook A Index for the first four months of this season, cotton is valued at 120 cents per pound, almost twice as high as the average over the same period in 2009. This value is well above the ICAC 2010-11 season average projection of 95 cents per pound.
As the cost of cotton rose at a faster rate than polyester during the last few months, trends have emerged for spinning with blends containing polyester fibre. The ICAC estimates that the percentage of cotton in global fibre use, approximately 36.5% in 2009, will continue to decline in 2010 and 2011.
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