Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Nalgonda weavers seek fair deal in procurement

BS Reporter / Chennai/ Hyderabad December 15, 2010, 0:10 IST
Handloom weaver societies from Nalgonda district on Tuesday made a representation to the Union government seeking fair procurement from all regions for Handloom House retail stores.
The Handloom House in Hyderabad is one of the 23 such stores across the country, and is run by the All-India Handloom Fabrics Marketing Co-operative Society, sponsored by the Union textiles ministry.
They told Rita Menon, secretary, Ministry of Textiles, who was here to inaugurate the renovated showroom, that the society had been reducing procurement from Nalgonda, Medak and Karimnagar districts for the last five years.
According to G Balaiah, convenor of a weavers cell affiliated to the Congress party, there has been no procurement so far this year from primary weaver societies in these districts, and the procurement centre too had been shifted from Hyderabad to Chirala in Prakasam district.
“Fifteen primary societies in Nalgonda district alone used to account for Rs 10 crore, but it is not even Rs 50 lakh now,” he said.
According to Bolla Shivashankar, convenor of Forum for Telangana Handloom Cooperatives Societies, the national society has 73 member societies from the state, of which 17 are from the Telangana region while 29 are from just one district of Anantapur.
The society is governed by a national-level board, which has only one representative from the state, Chanda Venkataswamy, also from Anantapur. The Nalgonda weavers believe that the state representative on the society board is instrumental in changing its procurement policies.
Balaiah alleged that Venkataswamy won the board membership based on votes of non-existent weaver societies in Tadipathri and Uravakonda in Anantapur district, some of which were registered in the names of his own family members and were never audited.
He said they had already met Union textiles minister Dayanidhi Maran in this regard, and would now seek an inquiry by the Central Vigilance Commission into the status of these societies.
 

Rains, festival leave cotton exporters high and dry

Gujarat production may take 10% hit.
Atop cotton heaps:APMC yard workers load cotton onto a lorry at Gondal APMC yard, 35 km from Rajkot, for transport to a ginning mill. —
M. R. Subramani
Rajkot, Dec. 10
A combination of rain and Diwali holidays, resulting in low arrivals, has led to exporters not being able to get the required 55 lakh bales (170 kg each) for shipments before the December 15 deadline.
In October, the Centre had announced permitting 55 lakh bales of cotton exports from November 1 and fixed a deadline of December 15 for the shipments to sent abroad.
“Exports by December 15 may be 25-30 lakh bales only. What has happened is that we could not buy for 12-15 days from the market due to reasons such as rains and Diwali,” said Mr M. P. Patel, Managing Director, Jaideep Cotton Fibres, an exporter.
The markets were closed for at least five days for Diwali. On top of it, farmers waited for an auspicious day after the festival to sell, he said.
“Another 6-7 days were lost due to heavy rain in the region,” he said. There is demand from China, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia, said Mr Anand A Poppat, Managing Director, Jalaram Cotton and Proteins Ltd. Exporters and ginners fear that there could be a loss of 10 per cent in the crop against the initial estimates.
Some 107 lakh bales were expected to be produced in Gujarat. It could be now 10 per cent lower,” said Mr M.P. Patel.
Lower production
Mr Poppat is of the view that production in Gujarat would be 10 per cent lower than the initial estimates of 130-135 lakh bales.
“There could be damage of 10-15 lakh bales in Gujarat,” said Mr Govindlal G. Patel of Deepak Enterprises. “We think the minimum production in Gujarat will be 90 lakh bales.
All-India production could be 310-315 lakh bales against initial estimates of 335 lakh bales. However, a section of the traders here thinks that 335 lakh bales is still possible given that an output of 350 lakh bales was projected.
“Rain accompanied by heavy wind has brought down production in my farm to 10 maund (20 kg each) on a bigha (2.5 acres). But for that, the output on my farm could have been 40 maund a bigha,” said Mr Shyamjibhai Raiyani, a pesticide distributor-cum-farmer.
Some farmers at the Dhoraji Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee yard said that their production had halved due to the un-seasonal rain. “The rain has led to boll in the plant falling. And water has seeped into the flowers, affecting the quality of cotton,” said Mr Kalpesh Posiya, a trader at Dhoraji APMC yard.
Black and yellow
There is, therefore, a problem in the cotton that is arriving at various markets in Rajkot district. While some are a little black, the others are a bit yellowish.
“We can set right the black ones while ginning, but the yellow ones are a problem,” said Mr Poppat.
If cotton arrives without any problem or is good in quality, then farmers get a minimum of Rs 900 a maund (20 kg). But any drop in quality sees the prices going down to Rs 850 for cotton with patches of black and around Rs 750 for those with yellow patches.
“If the cotton had been picked up before Diwali, there would have been no problem, or minimum contamination. If the picking was after the festival, then there would have been problems, as we are seeing now,” said Mr Jaisukhbhai Patel, a trader in Gondal APMC yard.
 
 

Loss in Gujarat cotton crop may be higher

Farmers report sharp fall in production as rain hits crop.
Ruined to the roots:A farmer points to the damage caused to the roots by rains at Kotada village in Gujarat's Porbandar district. Many such farms have been damaged in the Saurashtra region due to the unseasonal rains that lashed these parts in early November. —
M.R. Subramani
Recently in Porbandar
Mr Parbatbhai Khemabhai Varu of Kotada village in Gujarat's Porbandar district went in for cotton on two acres of land as he has been doing in the last few years. But rain, post-Diwali, has dashed his hopes of good returns despite rise in cotton prices this year.
“I should get at least three tonnes on an acre but I don't think I will get even 600 kg,” he says, as he tends to his cotton field that has been affected badly.
The main problem growers such as Mr Varu have faced this year is that rain has played truant during the first and second flowering stage of the plant. There are three flowering stages in cotton and each flowering results in cotton boll being developed and harvested.
“I am not expecting anything big from the third flowering as the plant has been affected,” he says, pulling out a plant to show the damage to the roots. The rain followed by onset of winter has affected the roots, resulting in growth becoming dormant in the plant.
Mr Shyamjibhai Raiyani, a pesticide distributor-cum-farmer who owns lands some 30 km from Rajkot, says the rain has resulted in the uprooting of at least 10 per cent of cotton plants. “Cotton farmers are plucking out the plant and going in for chana (gram),” he says. Mr Anilbhai B. Patel of Dhoraji village says he should have got at least 1,800 kg an acre but he was getting hardly 1,500 kg this year. The cotton trade has projected a 10 per cent drop in production against initial estimates but a drive from Porbandar to Rajkot gives an indication that the loss could be more than what is being feared. At least 70 lakh bales are produced in the seven districts of the Saurashtra region.
The Cotton Advisory Board, which has representatives of farmers, trade, industry and Government, has pegged production this year at 325.48 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) against 295 lakh bales last year. Gujarat is projected to produce 106.82 lakh bales (98 lakh bales) of this. Arrivals of raw cotton in Gujarat market from October 1 are 2.24 lakh tonnes against 9.02 lakh tonnes during the same period a year ago.
There are two reasons for drawing conclusions of shortfall. One is farmers reporting drop in yield and the second is, as people such as Raiyani say, plants being uprooted.
However, traders such as Mr Jaisukhbhai Patel at Gondal say that the quality could be better in the third flowering that will result in arrivals from January.
Says a trade source: “We think the area planted in Gujarat is up by 2.5 per cent from last year. And we think yield is much improved due to good monsoon in July and August and we do not think losses due to the rains in November will be as much as some people report. Rains impact the quality of the cotton more than the quantity.”
However, exporters such as M.P. Patel say the production could be some 10 per cent lower than initial estimates of 350 lakh bales.
Mr Anand Popat, vice-president of the Saurashtra Ginners Association, says only in places where the rain was accompanied by heavy wind has the plant fallen. “Otherwise, water has seeped into the cotton flower and it could affect the quality,” he says.
Mr Narendrabhai N. Limbasaya, a farmer from near Rajkot, says there is at least 30 per cent drop in yield on his farm. “The production drop could be much higher than what the trade is projecting,” he says.
 
 

Cotton continues to tumble



M.R. Subramani
Chennai, Dec. 14
Cotton prices continued to tumble on uncertainty over exports, despite arrivals being lower. Prices have dropped Rs 30 for a maund (of 20 kg) in the last four trading sessions.
“Prices on Tuesday dropped Rs 15 a maund. The best quality Shankar-6 cotton sold at Rs 881 a maund as demand from ginners was lower,” said Mr Kalpesh Posiya, a trader at Dhoraji Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) yard, in Gujarat's Rajkot district.
“Quality cotton fetched Rs 895 a maund at the most. Otherwise, the general price trend was between Rs 840 and Rs 860,” said Mr Jaisukhbhai Patel, a trader at Gondal APMC yard, near Rajkot.
“Prices have been dropping since last week on uncertainty over exports. As prices are dropping, arrivals too are low,” said Mr Patel.
“Cues from overseas market, too, kept the prices lower,” said Mr Posiya.
Arrivals at Gondal were down at 600-700 bags (60 kg each) from 1,200-1,500 bags last week.
However, the global market looked up on Tuesday with prices rising five cents, the maximum allowed by ICE Futures US in New York, to $1.4597 a pound.
The Centre had allowed exports of 55 lakh bales (of 170 kg) from November 1 and the deadline for shipping the consignments is Wednesday. So far, about 25 lakh bales have been reported t have been exported but the Centre has said that it will have an exact figure on Wednesday.
The Government will also review exports on Wednesday based on the current situation.
Exports hit
Exports were hit by delayed arrivals of cotton in the market due to holidays and unseasonal rain in November.
Meanwhile, the Textiles Commissioner, Mr A.B. Joshi, told reporters in Mumbai that cotton production would not be lower than 325 lakh bales this year.
Shankar-6 was quoted in Mumbai at Rs 40,300 for a candy (356 kg), against nearly Rs 47,000 witnessed a month ago. Prices have been dropping since then on higher arrivals.


Cotton output likely to be around 325-lakh bales

MUMBAI: Cotton output in India this year is expected to be around 325-lakh bales, said a senior government official.
“I am sure that it will not be less than 325-lakh bales,” said Mr A B Joshi, Textile Commissioner.
Concerns have been expressed in the past few months about cotton production in the country likely to get affected following unseasonal rains.
 
Yes, rains had a damaging effect on cotton output, especially in regions like Andhra Pradesh which was hit by cyclonic showers. But as a counter, production from other pockets like Maharashtra has been very high and rains have in fact, helped increase t he output,” Mr Joshi said, indicating that it is a mixed—bag sort of situation.
 
The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) had made a prediction in August that production could be around 325-lakh bales. Various industry bodies have given different estimates ranging from 300-lakh bales to 350-lakh bales, indicating divergent views on the impact of the rains on cotton production.
The CAB’s prediction is generally very sound and historically it has not gone wrong, the Textile Commissioner said, adding a review of the estimate will be done at a CAB meeting to be held shortly. – PTI
 

SIMA E-WEEKLY DEC 5th-11th/2010

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Knitwear exporters in Tirupur close shop

T E Narasimhan / Tirupur December 14, 2010, 0:34 IST
Around 20 per cent of the units, with revenues between Rs 1 crore and Rs 10 crore, have shut down due to rising cost of raw materials and other inputs.
The rising cost of raw materials and other inputs has resulted in the closure of a large number of small and medium and enterprises (SMEs) in Tirupur, India’s largest knitwear export hub.
According to industry estimates around 20 per cent of the units, with revenues in the range of Rs 1-10 crore, have closed down. The resulting job losses are estimated at 25,000.
A Sakthivel, president of the Tirupur Exporters Association (TEA), said that the town is directly exporting around Rs 12,000 crore every year. Apart from this, around 600 small units in Tirupur are doing job work for exporters based in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore, the value of which is Rs 1,000 crore a year.
The tiny town houses around 675 units. This includes 150 units with sales revenues of Rs 1-5 crore, 350 units with revenues of Rs 5-10 crore, 100 units earning revenues of Rs 10-50 crore, 50 units with revenues of Rs 50-100 crore and 25 units with revenues of more than Rs 100 crore.
“Around 20 per cent of the units, which are in the first two categories, have closed down due to the increase in the price of cotton yarn and the non-availability of yarn – the raw material – in the domestic market. This ultimately led to job losses of about 25,000 workers,” Sakthivel said.
According to his estimate, the knitwear industry is likely to report a loss of round Rs 200 crore due to the increase in yarn price. The units say they have stopped taking new orders from customers, since yarn prices are not stable and neither is yarn available.
C Nataraj, director of Stencil Apparels, said, “Most of the units have stopped taking orders, since raw material is not available. This year our company alone will report at least 15 per cent negative growth.” He said his company has received Rs 5 crore worth of enquiries from overseas customers, but he is unable to convert it into an order.
The other challenges for small units are conducting research and development and adapting to frequent changes in customer requirements. “Earlier, there used to be only two seasons and now this has become 12 seasons,” – so frequently do designs change – said C Sekhar, who heads a unit with revenues in the Rs 5-10 crore category.
The other factors that are eroding margins are the costs of power, labour and dyeing. Industry representatives note that dyeing charges account for 8-10 per cent of total costs, compared to 3-4 per cent in competing countries. Pollution norms have also become stringent, and require companies to invest in effluent plants; this adds to costs.
Describing the current situation as “crazy”, D Prem, chairman and managing director of Prem Durai Exports Pvt Ltd, one of the largest exporters in Tirupur, said that to partially compensate for losses, the knitwear industry had increased prices by 15 per cent, adding that this would not be enough. “We have to increase the price by at least 30 per cent, but customers are not willing to absorb this.”
Sakthivel noted that the price of yarn today is Rs 250 per kg, an increase of 80 per cent from Rs 139 per kg in August 2009. However, “the concern is that despite the increase in yarn price, non-availability of cotton yarn is a problem,” he said.
In March 2010, the price of yarn was Rs 165 a kg, but when exporters started booking orders, textile mills stopped delivery of yarn for 15 days and increased the price to Rs 182 a kg, exporters complained. Exporters then began booking garment orders on the basis of this price, only to find that in mid-May 2010, mills had again stopped deliveries and increased the yarn price to Rs 202 a kg, they said.


Farmers body urges govt to lift ban on cotton exportsDecember 13, 2010 (India)

Several Bhartiya Kisan Sangh (BKS) members are now in Delhi to take part in the 70-day long Kisan Swaraj Yatra which is in its last phase now.
The farmer’s body has been urging the government to remove the ban on cotton exports, and its members are going to approach the Union Agriculture Minister with the same demand.
Further, the union even asserted that the government by imposing such a ban on cotton exports has served the interest of some of the major industry players constituting the textile lobby, while overlooking the interest of a number of farmers who were left with no other option but to commit suicide owing to their inability to secure adequate prices.
The cultivators are still left with added output of 8.5 lakh cotton bales which could enable them to earn extra Rs 300 to 400 per bale, but as the Centre has imposed a ban on the export of cotton, the cultivators are not being able to cash on this extra income. 
However, they are hopeful that the meeting between the BKS members and the Union Agriculture Minister is likely to deliver some positive results.

Fibre2fashion News Desk - India

Indian cotton curb sparks protectionist stance

By: Leonie Barrie - 13 December 2010 15:31
 India's restrictions on raw cotton and cotton yarn exports have given the country the advantage of lower material costs – at least for a while. But its actions have also sparked a round of aggressive trade protection, especially by other textile exporters in the region.
India's initial reaction was to limit raw cotton exports, which meant its cotton prices grew more slowly than elsewhere. But now the country has also extended the restrictions to cotton yarn too – a move that should widen the yarn price gap that has given Indian garment factories a competitive advantage.
Angered by India's stance, other textile exporters are also attacking each others' trade policies. India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Peru have forced the WTO to reject EU concessions for Pakistani apparel and textile products. And Pakistani weavers are now lobbying their government to ban cotton and yarn exports.


India likely to reduce exports of cotton on reduced output

SME Times News Bureau | 13 Dec, 2010
Owing to unseasonal rainfall in the main cotton producing regions, India, the world's second-biggest grower and exporter of cotton, may miss its earlier estimate.
According to D.K. Nair, secretary general of the Confederation of Indian Textiles Industry (CITI), output in the year started on October 1 may be 29.5 million to 30 million bales of 170 kilograms each, compared with 32.5 million bales estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board.
"There's a near-consensus that the crop will be below 30 million bales this year after the unseasonal rains and floods in some areas," Nair said. "A lower crop should prompt a review of the surplus availability and the export strategy."
A lower crop may prompt India to retain restrictions on exports, bolstering global prices that have rallied 72 percent this year. Cotton reached $1.5195 on November 10, the highest price since trading began 140 years ago, as adverse weather damaged crops in China, Pakistan and the US.
India's textiles ministry on October 11 halted registration of new export contracts after it got applications to ship 5.5 million bales, the maximum permissible this year. Louis Dreyfus Commodities, the top trader of cotton, and Cargill Inc. are among companies that won permits.
Meanwhile, there may not be more than 3 million bales available for export as rains last month in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, the biggest growers, damaged crops, Nair said. Shipments may total 2.5 million bales, less than 5.24 million bales permitted by the Textiles Ministry for export by December 15, Nair said.
The South Asian nation, a major supplier of cotton to China, will cap shipments of yarn at 720,000 metric tons in the year started on October 1 to bolster domestic supplies, the government said last week.
"There has to be some predictability about government policy related to cotton," Nair said. "Any review of export policy should be based on actual crop size," he added.


Cotton exports less than half of registrations

13/12/2010

New Delhi, Dec 13 (PTI) Exporters have managed to ship out only less than half of the permitted 55 lakh bales of cotton, much to the relief of the domestic textiles industry which has been opposing the outward shipments tooth and nail.
The exports were allowed from November 1 and the entire quantity of registered 55 lakh bales was to be shipped out by December 15.
By now, only about 25 lakh bales have been exported and the government has to decide at the ministerial level whether to allow extension of time, Secretary in the Textiles Ministry Rita Menon told PTI.
Finance, Agriculture, Commerce and Textiles ministers are expected to meet within this week to take a decision on the extension of the time for cotton exports.
Menon said the government would also examine whether all the registrations were genuine.
"First, we are going to see what are the valid registrations. We will see the gaps, then we will have a policy decision," she said.
When the government had decided in September to allow cotton exports in the current season (October-September), the textiles industry was up in arms against the move, stating high raw material prices would harm it.
The industry in clusters like Tirupur went on a day long strike against these exports on November 19.
However, the Agriculture Ministry pushed for cotton exports saying farmers'' interest should be safeguarded.
The commodity prices in India have witnessed a rise of about 89 per cent in the fast few months, according to the government estimates.
This is despite projections of a record production of cotton at 325 lakh bales in 2010-11 against the estimated demand of 266 lakh bales.
Apart from fixing a threshold on cotton exports, the government has also imposed a cap of 72 crore kg on cotton yarn exports this fiscal to help the domestic textiles industry in view of rising prices in the global market.
According to industry sources, prices of cotton yarn have increased by about 85 per cent in the last nine months.

India textiles secretary : to review despatches before extending cotton export deadline


Published on 2010-12-13 14:20:51
New Delhi - India will review cotton despatches already made before deciding whether to extend a Dec. 15 deadline for the export of 5.5 million bales, Textiles Secretary Rita Menon said Monday.

"First, we are going to see how much has been exported and then what is the gap between export registration and actual exports," Menon told reporters.

India permitted the export of 5.5 million bales of 170 kilograms each in the current marketing year that started Oct. 1, and traders booked the entire quantity within days of the government opening compulsory registrations for shipments.

India, the world's second-largest cotton exporter, is expecting a cotton crop of 32.5 million bales in 2010-11 due to higher plantings. Indian traders are hoping to cash in on soaring international prices due to a shortage in key producers such as China and Pakistan.  


Monday, December 13, 2010

ASDE Updates: Global Cotton Consumption Seen Down

Capital Market / 10:51 , Dec 11, 2010

As per the latest release from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by USDA, world cotton Production is raised nearly 300,000 bales, as increases for Australia and Brazil more than offset decreases for Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Greece, and the United States. World consumption is reduced based on lower estimates for Pakistan and India, partially offset by an increase for the United States. World trade is down slightly, despite higher world production, as most of the larger southern hemisphere production will be shipped in 2011/12. World stocks are now forecast at 43.4 million bales, marginally below the beginning level.

U. S Cotton Production is reduced 150,000 bales, as lower production in Texas is partially offset by an increase in the Southeast. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales, based on stronger-than-expected consumption in recent months. The export estimate is unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 1.9 million bales, or 10 percent of total use. The forecast average price received by producers of 76 to 86 cents per pound is raised 2 cents on the lower end of the range.

Source :http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/WASDE-Updates-Global-Cotton-Consumption-Seen-Down/3440879211

Friday, December 10, 2010

Cotton Rises on ‘Healthy’ U.S. Exports;

December 09, 2010, 3:47 PM EST
By Leslie Patton
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Cotton rose the most allowed by ICE Futures U.S., touching a three-week high, on signs of robust demand. 
In the week ended Dec. 2, U.S. shipments of upland cotton jumped 21 percent from a year earlier to 323,356 bales, the Department of Agriculture said. Last week, the U.S. exported 322,977 bales. Futures in New York have surged 80 percent this year, heading for the biggest annual gain since 1973.
“That’s a big shipment number,” said Keith Brown, the president of Keith Brown & Co., a brokerage in Moultrie, Georgia. “These numbers are healthy.”
Cotton futures for March delivery jumped the exchange maximum of 4 cents, or 3 percent, to settle at $1.3595 a pound at 2:41 p.m. on ICE in New York. That’s the highest since Nov. 16. Prices reached a record $1.5195 on Nov. 10.
“The market is intact to the upside,” said Brown, who estimated prices may rise to $1.38 next week.
The U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, is forecast to ship 15.75 million bales in the year ending July 31, up from 12.04 million last season, the USDA said on Nov. 9. A bale weighs about 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms.
The USDA will update its global crop projections tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
Stockpiles Drop
U.S. inventories held in warehouses monitored by ICE fell 19 percent to 99,957 bales yesterday, the first decline since early October. Stockpiles are down 76 percent this year.
Output in India, the world’s second-biggest exporter, may miss an earlier estimate because of unseasonal rainfall, a textile mills group said. A bale in India weighs 375 pounds, or 170 kilograms.
Production may total 29.5 million to 30 million bales for the year that began Oct. 1, the Confederation of Indian Textiles Industry said. That compares with 32.5 million predicted by the Cotton Advisory Board.
The Indian news is a “bullish story,” Mike Stevens, an independent trader in Mandeville, Louisiana, said in an e-mail.
Orange-juice futures for January delivery dropped 3.55 cents, or 2.1 percent, to settle at $1.6245 a pound in New York. Prices have gained 26 percent this year.
--With assistance from Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai. Editors: Millie Munshi, Steve Stroth

China - Cotton price rally may fail to boost planting

07 Dec, 2010 - China  
China’s cotton price rally this year may fail to spur more planting next season as farmers are concerned about market volatility and high input costs, the China Cotton Association said, citing its own survey. 
China’s cotton prices have almost doubled this year to a record 33,720 yuan ($5,071) a metric ton on Nov. 10, before tumbling 19 percent amid government efforts to crack down on speculation and rein in inflation pressure. 
Cotton is a labor-intensive crop, that’s why the volatile prices and high input costs such as labor and raw materials have prevented farmers from greatly increasing the acreage,” the association said, citing a survey done in November among 1,700 farmers in 12 provinces. 
Planting may rise by 11.7 percent in 2011 along the Yangtze River and by 4.9 percent along the Yellow River, respectively, the survey showed. The association didn’t mention farmers’ planting intentions in Xinjiang, China’s biggest producer. 
China’s cotton output may fall 5.5 percent this year to 6.36 million metric tons after rain and cold weather damaged crops, according to Cncotton.com, a research company. 
Demand in China is forecast to outpace supply by 17 million bales in the year ending July 31, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on Nov. 9. Stockpiles in the U.S. are predicted to fall to 2.2 million bales this season, down 25 percent from 2.95 million last year. A bale weighs about 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms. 
Source: Bloomberg

Cotton stocks expected to increase 4% in 2010-2011 season

According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), global cotton stocks are expected to increase 4% by the end of the 2010/2011 season to 9.3m tonnes. This is equivalent to 42m bales.
During the 2009-2010 season stocks fell by 25% to 8.9m tonnes, the smallest amount for seven seasons. By the 2011-2012 season, the ICAC is forecasts stocks will increase further to 11.2m tonnes, or 52m bales.
The global stocks-to-use ratio is also predicted to increase from 36% in 2009-10 to 38% in 2010-11, said the ICAC. This is however well below the ten year average of 48%. Whereas a bumper crop is expected in the Southern Hemisphere, stocks are expected to decline in most Northern Hemisphere countries.
Despite this forecast, cotton mill consumption is expected to remain stable at 24.6m tonnes 2010-11, due to limited available supplies and high prices. This is equivalent to 113m bales.

According to the Cotlook A Index for the first four months of this season, cotton is valued at 120 cents per pound, almost twice as high as the average over the same period in 2009. This value is well above the ICAC 2010-11 season average projection of 95 cents per pound.

As the cost of cotton rose at a faster rate than polyester during the last few months, trends have emerged for spinning with blends containing polyester fibre. The ICAC estimates that the percentage of cotton in global fibre use, approximately 36.5% in 2009, will continue to decline in 2010 and 2011.

CITI urges govt. to review decision on cotton exports

Namrata Kath Hazarika | 09 Dec, 2010
The Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) has urged the government to monitor the cotton export situation carefully as actual production of cotton this year may be less than even 300 lakh bales against CAB's earlier estimates of 325 lakh bales.
"As against CAB’s estimates of 325 lakh bales, actual production of cotton in the country during the current year may be less than 300 lakh bales since there have been loss of crop in Gujarat and Maharashtra because of excessive rains and in Andhra Pradesh, because of floods," CITI said in a recent press release.
The government, therefore, should not allow extension of shipping period or re-registration for any quantities that may remain unshipped on expiry of the EARCs already issued, CITI viewed, adding that the situation can be reviewed after cotton arrivals stabilize and a clear picture emerges on the actual crop size and consumption during the year.   
"In case any exportable surplus is determined after the review, it may be allowed for registration only against Letters of Credit or Advance Payment amounting to not less than 10-15 percent of the value of the contract, in order to avoid speculative registration," it said.
On cotton yarn exports, CITI, however, expressed a different view, pointing out that quantitative ceiling of 720 million kgs. may be withdrawn since there is no shortage of cotton yarn in the market and demand for cotton yarn has started declining both in the domestic and international markets.

Further, the industry body suggested that the mills which have export obligation against EPCG licenses or Advance licenses and EOUs as well as SEZ units may be exempted from the ceiling, since they are mandated by government to complete their export obligation.
Also, blended yarn with cotton content above 50 percent but below 85 percent is not accounted as cotton yarn in the production data of government. But these are classified as cotton yarn for exports. Since their production data has not been taken into account while assessing the exportable surplus, such yarns may be exempted from the ceiling imposed on export of cotton yarn.
CITI also requested that there is apprehension in the industry on speculative registrations which might have taken place for cotton yarn export. Therefore, no extension may be allowed in the period stipulated in the Export Authorization Registration Certificates (EARCs) for shipment.
And, any quantities that may remain unshipped within the validity period of the EARCs may only be allowed for registration against fresh applications backed by Letters of Credit or Advance Payment amounting to not less than 10-15 percent of the value of the contract.
Moreover, applications for registration of about 60 million kgs of cotton yarn had been received by Textile Commissioner, in addition to the 720 million kgs for which EARCs had been issued, before the quantitative ceiling was imposed by government.
EARCs may be issued against these applications, since refusal to do so will be tantamount to enforcing the ceiling retrospectively, CITI's letter suggested.

Cotton Output in India May Miss Estimate, Cut Exports, Textiles Group Says

By Thomas Kutty Abraham - Dec 9, 2010 3:07 PM GMT+0530 Thu Dec 09 09:37:00 GMT 2010
Cotton output in India, the world’s second-biggest grower and exporter, may miss an earlier estimate because of unseasonal rainfall in the main producing regions, a textile mills group said.
Output in the year started Oct. 1 may be 29.5 million to 30 million bales of 170 kilograms each, compared with 32.5 million bales estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board, D.K. Nair, secretary general of the Confederation of Indian Textiles Industry, said in a phone interview from New Delhi today.
A lower crop may prompt India to retain restrictions on exports, bolstering global prices that have rallied 72 percent this year. Cotton reached $1.5195 on Nov. 10, the highest price since trading began 140 years ago, as adverse weather damaged crops in China, Pakistan and the U.S.
“There’s a near-consensus that the crop will be below 30 million bales this year after the unseasonal rains and floods in some areas,” Nair said. “A lower crop should prompt a review of the surplus availability and the export strategy.”
India’s textiles ministry Oct. 11 halted registration of new export contracts after it got applications to ship 5.5 million bales, the maximum permissible this year. Louis Dreyfus Commodities, the top trader of cotton, and Cargill Inc. are among companies that won permits.
Shipments Capped
There may not be more than 3 million bales available for export as rains last month in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, the biggest growers, damaged crops, Nair said. Shipments may total 2.5 million bales, less than 5.24 million bales permitted by the Textiles Ministry for export by Dec. 15, Nair said.
The South Asian nation, a major supplier of cotton to China, will cap shipments of yarn at 720,000 metric tons in the year started Oct. 1 to bolster domestic supplies, the government said last week.
“There has to be some predictability about government policy related to cotton,” Nair said. “Any review of export policy should be based on actual crop size.”
Futures for March delivery fell 1.7 percent to $1.3002 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York today. The commodity is set for its biggest annual gain since 1973, according to Bloomberg data.
Demand in China is forecast to outpace supply by 17 million bales in the year ending July 31, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on Nov. 9. Stockpiles in the U.S. are predicted to fall to 2.2 million bales this season, down 25 percent from 2.95 million last year. A bale in the U.S. weighs about 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms.
Consumer Resistance
“Global availability isn’t likely to improve anytime soon and that may be seen as supportive for prices,” Nair said. “But prices have reached a peak where consumer resistance will come into play,” he said.
Cotton arrivals in India this year have lagged behind last year’s levels after rain slowed harvests in the main growing region. Arrivals were 7.02 million bales by Dec. 5, compared with 7.21 million a year ago, Cotton Corp. of India said Dec. 6.
India’s post-monsoon rainfall in October and November was 17 percent higher than the level deemed normal for that time of the year, according to the weather department.


Thursday, December 9, 2010

Demand for imposition of ceiling on polyester yarn exportsDecember 07, 2010 (India)

Leaders from the textile sector have urged the Union Government to impose a ceiling on the exports of polyester yarns. A similar measure had been adopted recently in case of cotton yarn exports, which was intended towards reducing its price in the domestic market. 
Yarn spinners as well as texturisers have raised the prices of Polyester Filament Yarn and Polyester Oriented Yarn and this hike in prices is still persisting in Surat, which is the largest man-made fabric hub of India.
A memorandum put forward by the Federation of Indian Art Silk Weaving Industry (FIASWI) to the Ministry of Textiles on this issue revealed that the unprecedented rise in the prices of cotton has led to a distortion in the demand for synthetic yarn by the textile manufacturers. This has in turn raised the export orders for synthetic yarn for India’s biggest manufacturers like Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) to Pakistan and China.
Prices of polyester yarn have rapidly escalated to Rs 114 per kilogram in November from Rs 63 per kilogram in September.

India plans to extend cotton export deadline by one month

Published on 2010-12-06 14:34:37
New Delhi - India is planning to extend the deadline of Dec. 15 for exports of 5.5 million bales of cotton by a month as most exporters are struggling to carry out shipments within the time limit, a senior government official said Monday.
Traders say that they are unable to meet the deadline as late rains have delayed cotton harvest and reduced local supplies so far.

India is expecting a bumper cotton crop of 32.5 million bales, of 170 kilograms each, in the marketing year that began Oct. 1, and cotton traders have been lobbying for exports to take advantage of soaring global prices.

Global prices are hovering near record levels after two key producers--China and Pakistan--have forecast a drop in output due to floods.